ES (S&P 500 Future) Trade Plan for 1/2/2025

Updated: Jan 20

Yearly Analysis:

The market maintains its bullish stance, with ES prices consistently trading above the 2024 Value High. The One Time Frame Up (OTFU) pattern continues to dominate, signaling sustained upward momentum.

Monthly Analysis:

The OTFU trend persists, highlighting ongoing buyer strength. However, December 2024 presented a distinct double distribution profile. Leading up to December 26, 2025, buyers attempted to address the poor structure left on the FOMC date (Dec 18, 2024) but fell short when sellers re-entered and liquidated at the prior 12 days balance low. This renewed selling pressure drove ES prices lower, reverting to the lower distribution area within the monthly profile.

Weekly Analysis:

• ES is currently within a 3-week balance range of 5865.50 to 6180.
• Trading activity remains in the lower distribution of the week ending 12/15/2024.
• Buyers need to defend the 5865-5882 zone to maintain a bullish perspective.
• The next critical support zone is 5770-5800, marking the low of the previous 6-week balance.

Daily Analysis:

• ES has been trending lower for four consecutive days since December 26, 2024.
• Daily value continues to decline despite significant buyer activity on 12/30/24.
• Key levels for buyers to step in are 5898-5910.
• If ES trades above and holds 5958, a move to 5979-5981 is likely.
• Sellers are expected to defend 5979-5991. If buyers hold above 5995, an upward move to 6015-6018 is possible.
• If buyers fail to hold 5910-17, sellers may push ES down to the 5894-5898 zone.

At 5894-5898, buyer activity is anticipated, but market behavior at this level needs close observation. Traders should remain objective and monitor market action throughout the day.